Kargil Its aftermath
PATRON Lt Gen (Retd) SARDAR FS LODI gives an in-depth analysis of the post-KARGIL scenario
India had moved in about 30,000 extra troops into the area and launched many attacks supported by heavy mortars and guns without much success, inspite of Indian claims to the contrary. She has also for the first time used helicopter gun-ships and modern fighter aircraft against the freedom-fighters in Kashmir. To justify the use of heavy air-power against her own people (India claims, though wrongly, that Kashmir is a part of her territory) India first denounced the Kashmiri freedom- fighters as Taliban of Afghanistan and Pakistani infiltrators. These accusations found a favourable response in the Western press. As India's military position in Kargil did not improve the freedom-fighters were re-classified as Pakistan Army personnel. this was a crude attempt to cover up Indian Army's operational failures in Kargil and to catch the attention of the west. India succeeded in both her objectives.
The people of Jammu and Kashmir have been fighting against Indian occupation for the last 51 years. They are demanding their right to decide through a UN supervised plebiscite which of the two countries they should join, India or Pakistan. From their struggle it is evident what their answer will be. This right to decide has been guaranteed to them by the United Nations itself, through its various resolutions. The uprising in Kashmir since the last 11 years has been the most persistent and determined. This is being brutally suppressed with the help of 700,000 troops and para-military forces employed by India and special laws enacted for the purpose. Inspite of the large-scale killings and gang-rapes the uprising continues.
By occupying and holding the Kargil heights the freedom-fighters had gained a bold victory over the Indian army which had strategic ramifications. Even after two months of fighting India could not make much headway. Indian military spokesmen claimed in Delhi that it would take another three months to clear the area of Mujahideen. But fresh winter snow is expected in the area by end of August, when India's military position in the area would become untenable. Therefore the urgency to use other means.
India's sharp reaction to the Kargil episode is based primarily on three major factors - Firstly, there is a change in the tactics used by the Mujahideen. Instead of the usual hit-and-run tactics of the guerrilla fighters the Kashmiri freedom-fighters are for the first time holding ground and defying the Indian army to attack and suffer losses. Left to themselves the Mujahideen could have prevented India from clearing the Kargil heights this year. Second, the Mujahideen are interdicting the Srinagar - Kargil - Leh supply route. This provides the main logistics support for the Indian troops holding the Siachin Glacier. Supplies for winter are usually stockpiled during the few summer months. It is estimated that if the Indian troops at Siachin run short of fuel for heating and ammunition, some forward locations will have to be abandoned by India. Third, the Indian elections are not far off and the present caretaker Indian government would wish to take advantage of the Kargil situation to gain some extra seats.
Holding the Siachin Glacier is important to India, to support her long-term strategy in the area. This may help in cutting off the land-route between Pakistan and China - our only support at present. To occupy the Siachin Glacier, India violated the Line of Control in Kashmir and the Simla Agreement that she refers to so often. When India moved her troops into the Siachin Glacier area a decade ago, it did not evoke much interest in the western capitals although India was obviously the aggressor. It is evident that economic issues took precedent over international law and morality. It is the first time that the Kargil episode has threatened India's hold on the Siachin Glacier, but the western world is coming to her aid.
India helped to create a war hysteria in their country by whipping up the so-called threat from Pakistan and threatening to cross the Line of Control. India also moved troops to the Pakistan border. Inspite of the bellicose rhetoric India was incapable militarily of opening another front. This was being done primarily to raise the sagging morale of her troops in Kashmir who were taking a beating inspite of their size and the fire-power available to them. By taking the heights overlooking Kargil and Drass the Mujahideen have placed the Indian army at a tactical and strategic disadvantage. Tactically the heights are difficult to clear. Strategically by being forced to concentrate troops at Kargil for the safety of Siachin, India has unbalanced herself. Kargil is at the extreme end of two vulnerable supply routes. By concentrating 30,000 troops there, other areas have been denuded where Mujahideen activity has increased, as in the Kashmir valley and on the Srinagar-Jammu road. Having failed militarily India concentrated on a diplomatic offensive to isolate Pakistan. In this she succeeded owing to her economic potential as a market for world goods particularly in purchase of military hardware.
India has violated the Line of Control in the past and got away with it. The obvious answer is to deploy U.N. observers on either side of the line to give an accurate picture. India does not allow this, therefore the UN observers are at present deployed only on the Pakistan side of the line and are doing a splendid job. India has also banned the entry of press reporters from the Kargil area and prevented her people from listening to Pakistan TV broadcasts. Is it the fear that the people of India will learn the truth, which would be contrary to Indian government claims.
India and Pakistan's armed confrontation in Kashmir was certainly a source of some concern to the world community as both sides have nuclear weapons. But the fighting was restricted to shelling across the Line of Control. Pakistan offered to end the dispute through negotiations and the foreign minister was sent to New Delhi for the purpose. The visit produced no results owing to India's attitude which certainly bordered on arrogant obduracy. But Pakistan continued with its efforts for a dialogue to avoid escalation in the fighting.
In the present conflict it is often overlooked that the main problem is not Kargil but the future status of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. It is not a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan alone. The United Nations are a party to the dispute having passed resolutions for its settlement. Above all, the people of Kashmir are the major party to the dispute as they themselves have to decide the future status of the state.
All four sides cannot be ignored. If the present problem of Kargil is solved without in any way touching the larger issue of Kashmir, the struggle will continue as it has done for the last 51 years. So the answer is to tackle the problem of Kashmir as well.
The United States President has taken a keen and personal interest in the Kargil conflict. He has asked both India and Pakistan to resume their dialogue and ultimately work towards peace in the spirit of the Lahore Declaration. The Prime Minister of Pakistan met the U.S. President at his own request on July 4, 1999 and agreed to use his influence with the Mujahideen to stop the fighting in Kargil and withdraw from the heights overlooking India's strategic supply route from Srinagar to Kargil.
It is hoped this action will bring peace to the region and the outstanding problem of Kashmir is solved in accordance with the wishes of its people and in conformity with the laws and norms of civilized behaviour without resort to arms.
Some people in Pakistan will not agree with the Prime Ministers commitments made by him in Washington. They feel he has not upheld the cause of the Kashmiri freedom-fighters. But when the United States took interest in the conflict, Pakistan was left with hardly any options to speak of. What the results would be only the future can tell.
