AFTER THE NUCLEAR FEVER IS OVER

On its own Pakistan would have never carried out the blasts. We lost this opportunity in early nineties- in hindsight that was a blessing in disguise - had we done so the sanctions and the checks would have been far too severe. The well which was dug in Chagai area for the underground test was finally capped with heavy hearts by the team of our scientists who after the sacking of Nawaz Sharif Government in 1993 thought that the lid may never be removed, the well may never be used. However Allah had different plans, it is always His plan that succeeds, Allah has not only feathered the caps of scientists with glorious success but He has done so in a manner which no one ever imagined. Pakistan's image got an unprecedented boost, with world opinion turning in favour of Pakistan's blasts as inevitable and fully justified. The nuclearisation of the sub-continent, internationalised once again almost the dead issue of Kashmir. Even diehard India's supporters feel that this issue be resolved immediately by India and Pakistan. This is the main flash point. The present status of nuclear weapon state that has been bestowed upon Pakistan is therefore by default and not by design. Pakistan was left with no option and was literally dragged into this status purely in self defence - the public opinion within the country and the Indian leaders statements left no other option open to Mian Nawaz Sharif. Allah.... was very kind and put in his heart a momentous decision ÑÑ the sub-continent will never be the same again. After Allah, India and US have turned out to be our major benefactors. We in particular should be grateful to Messrs. Vajpayee, Advani, Fernandes, Farooq Abdullah and other Indian leaders mostly from BJP who forgetting norms of diplomacy and etiquette of dealing with other countries treated Pakistan as pigmy - a non entity with no right to exist - every new speaker tried to out-voice the previous ones. They started with self glory and gradually their euphoria took a totally anti-Pakistan stance. Starting with threats of dire consequences and demanding vacation of Azad Kashmir, Advani and company started rhetoric of annihilating Pakistan and restoring the pre-partition status of mother India. BJP leaders were clamouring that they have fulfilled their election promises and have already ordered that their nuclear programme will be weaponised. The Prithvis will very shortly be armed with nuclear war heads.

I had already elaborated on options open to Pakistan in my earlier articles before Pakistan made the blasts Ñ- that part has now become history, but a much more important and far more sensitive issue is yet to be tackled. Now that this genie is out of the bottle and can't be put back there, what responsibilities have fallen on the shoulders of India and Pakistan in their new status as the nuclear weapon states. There are as yet many stages which both India and Pakistan have to go through before they can be certified as truly nuclear weapon states. The nuclearisation of the warheads, their mating with the missiles, their command and control system against the nuclear attack, the surveillance, the acquisition of targets, the security and defensive systems against the nuclear attack. Neither India nor Pakistan has the basic and rudimentary defensive arrangements. How and where to store, when to arm, on whose orders to arm and eventually fire. The rocket motor, the launcher (unless the missiles are located in underground silos), the war- heads, have all to be located separately. The propulsion units have to be readied taking warheads from the shelves, mating of the warhead with missile. And finally the acquisition of the target (unless all this is pre-programmed in the computers), even their double checks-whether the orders delivered are the same as intended, who will be the final authority to press the button etc.

To say the least the people in India and Pakistan do not have the foggiest idea as to what can happen to them and to their generation if a nuclear war is initiated even accidentally. They will be the sitting ducks. Outcries of the western countries are therefore justified because in the absence of all these, the chances of accidental initiations are high.

To the extent that a very grave strategic imbalance had been created by Indian blasts of May 11 and 13 and that imbalance had to be redressed by Pakistan and that nuclear weapon capability is the best bet to prevent another war, Pakistan was left with no option but to carry out its own blasts of 28 May 1998. But now that the nuclear fever is over, both India and Pakistan must think with cool heads what to do to prevent even accidental initiation of a nuclear war. They must decide where to stop. Nuclear weapons are not going to fill the bellies of the shelterless, shoeless, scantily dressed, starving millions in India. A nuclear war can start even accidentally - by any side but more on the Indian side-it does not require a debate to prove this point. One only has to read the statement of BJP (leaders) form 12 May to 28 May 1998. Any lunatic with BJP's backing can initiate the nuclear war. Once started, the other side will be left with no option but to retaliate within seconds and minutes. Even the Christians of today don't believe in turning the other cheek. Before the outside world could intervene couple of millions would already be dead or deformed on both sides. The residual radiation will kill and deform hundreds of thousands more and will carry its lethal effect across the sub-continent in all directions depending upon the prevailing wind speeds and directions. Even future generations will not escape their ill effects. In Nagasaki and Hiroshima even some of the grand children of the holocaust victims are deformed.

On whose orders finally the button will be pressed and far too many intricate and highly sensitive details which have as yet been not translated into any SOPs (standing operating procedures), making transport, carriers, trucks and tanks etc. Proof against radiation are far off things. The very basic and rudimentary respirators - the Indian and Pakistan soldiers have only seen them in pictures, never used them-the cost of these respirators (with very short shelf life of the element/filter) is going to be phenomenal. For India's 1st and 2nd line forces with 25% GS reserve nearly 5 million respirators would be needed. Likewise Pakistan would require at least 1-2 million. The package for India and Pakistan is not going to be less than 1billion and 3-400 million US$ respectively.

2nd World War vintage (nearly 50 years old) with unserviceable filters/element gas respirators which were practically junk, were issued by the US to the anti Iraq alliance troops with price tag of 100 US$ a piece, recovered from the Saudis and Kuwaities. Even indigenously produced respirators are not going to cost anything less.

I have talked about only the respirators, each soldier will require protective clothing. So much of effort and resources will be required to modify equipment and armament for nuclear environment. Drills to decontaminate an area subjected to a nuclear attack will have to be worked out. One can write on and on, the net conclusion which manifests with its emergence at the end of analysis of each and every factor is that India and Pakistan neither have nor will ever have such huge surplus to spend on the nuclearisation of the battle field and the environment. Pakistanis do not know what abject poverty is - If one wants to witness it, one should take a trip to India where over 300 million people, nearly the total population of Europe, were born, are living and will die on foot paths. They have never seen any shelter. I will never forget the interview of Ram Parkash from Calcutta who disclosed that the only time in his life he spent a night under a shelter was when friends pooled the money to book him a room in a hotel for his wedding night. Nearly 50% of India's population does not have clothes to cover both the upper and lower halves, almost the same number has never had any footwear - what to talk two square meals. In India 50% of the domestic servants get their wages in shape of food and used clothing. According to the recent census (results not yet released) there are over 2 million unauthorised Indians living in Karachi alone-25% of them are domestic maids earning around 2000 rupees per month. It is not that Pakistanis are very rich, relatively the Pakistanis are much better off with almost 3-4 times higher living standard but by international standards both countries are paupers. Instead of wasting resources on the mad nuclear and missile race they should both concentrate on the uplift of the sick and poverty stricken millions. This is possible only if leadership in India (Pakistan has often declared it so) takes the bold and mature decision of resolving Kashmir issue. Without untying the Kashmir knot, there is no chance of lasting peace - India has employed over 600,000 (50% regular and 50% para military) troops in Kashmir, which in terms of infantry, is more than 20 Inf/mountain divisions. Their maintenance, quick change overs, transportation, special rations and clothing - special allowances are costing India over 100 billion rupees which almost equals Pakistan's total defence budget. The current defence budget of India of 500 billion rupees - is only the declared budget, if we include the hidden part, the total exceeds well beyond 600 billion rupees. In term of Pak rupees in the open market rates-Indian defence budget is nearly 720 billion Pak rupees, which is almost 120 billion rupees more than Pakistan total national budget of 600 billion.

This obviously is a very clear indicator that India is going in a big way after its nuclear and missile programme. Since Pakistan is already at the minimum of the minimum defensive deterrent any further reduction will cause capitulation. The onus of force reduction, therefore, rests on India - Pakistan would on its own reciprocate.

It is nothing but propaganda and self deception that Indian military system is against Chinese threat. All three Indian services are undirectional, they can only be employed against Pakistan. They can neither operate nor even reach Chinese target. India should, therefore, resolve Kashmir issue in accordance with the UN resolutions and then sit across the table and effect as an immediate measure a force reduction of 20% which could release over 100 billion rupees to the Indians which could be spent on development.

Both countries should declare a moratorium on further nuclear and missile tests, sign a no war pact and effect 20% reduction in defence budget. This can lead the two countries to open trade and travel. All this and much more is possible which will change the destinies of the people of India and Pakistan. The catch word in all this is RESOLVE KASHMIR EARLIEST WITH A DEADLINE WITHIN 1998.