INDIAN OFFENSIVE IN THE KARGIL SECTOR

Air Marshal Ayaz Ahmed Khan (Retd)

Indian nuclear blasts on May 11 and 13, 1998 had destroyed the strategic balance in South Asia. It was restored by Pakistan's five nuclear blasts on May 28 and 30 1998 and Pakistan's nuclear deterrence since is the guarantor of its national security. New Delhi should have understood this, but has not. Indian motives, and objectives of hegemony over South Asia remain unchanged. New Delhi with over six hundred thousand troops in Occupied Kashmir continues to use its big stick to beat the Kashmiris into submission and capitulation. Bharat is not prepared to resolve the Kashmir dispute according to wish and will of the Kashmiri people, the UN Security Council resolutions or in the spirit of the Simla Agreement or the Lahore Declaration. Kashmir on the boil suits BJP's designs. Military operations in the Kargil-Dras sector is planned graduated escalation to crush Kashmiri resistance, while gaining political mileage. Islamabad and the global community is concerned that Indian bombardment of the LoC and such military adventurism may turn Kashmir into a nuclear flashpoint.

Indian rulers remain oblivious that Pakistan has gained strategic parity. Their tone continues to be arrogant and hegemonic. In a speech marking the first "Technology Day" on May 11, 1999 caretaker Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee said that the nuclear explosions had boosted India's strength and self-confidence. "Pokharan has brought strength to our national security, and self-confidence to our national minds. The atomic blasts have become the symbols of resurgent India, a strong and prosperous India determined to regain her rightful place in the comity of nations. We have passed through this year of trial and tests with our heads held high. Economic sanctions failed to frighten us. Technology denials failed to threaten us". This politically motivated statement has serious implications for the region, in fact for the globe. India seeks big power status, membership of the nuclear club, UN Security Council seat, and illegal grip over Kashmir. India will continue to enlarge its missile and nuclear armoury and conventional forces. Deploying them menacingly threatens Pakistan's security. Pakistan has again informed China of Indian hegemonic designs. The five additional Indian Army Brigades supported by heavy artillery (155mm Bofors guns) and four fighter and one gunship helicopter squadron at Srinagar and Avantipur air bases and at Kargil to reinforce the Div plus troops already deployed in the Kargil-Dras-Siachin area, has created a serious security threat to Pakistan's Northern Areas. Pakistan must avoid being lured into the expensive and dangerous nuclear or conventional weapons rat race. The requirement of peace in South Asia and Pakistan's economic and social problems demand that utmost restraint is exercised, and desire to match India bomb for bomb or missile for missile be curbed. However Pakistan reserves its right to defend itself against aggression and punish intruders into its territory and air space.

But Pakistan cannot give in on Kashmir, and must continue efforts for a peaceful settlement of this core problem. At the farewell banquet he gave for President Nelson Mandela, Prime Minister Sharif said. that, "the agenda of our independence has remained inconclusive, as the unresolved dispute of Jammu and Kashmir has continued to cast a dark shadow on our region for over half a century. Pakistan continues to hold out the olive branch of peace and we are prepared for a meaningful dialogue with India on all issues including Kashmir. We hope that India will reciprocate our sincerity of purpose ... and we will be able to live in peace and harmony." But while Sharif was extending the olive branch, New Delhi was engaged in artillery and air bombardment across the LoC. Since May 9 Indian Army has been shelling villages across the LoC. On May 23 Indian Army launched massive artillery fusillades across the LoC in the Kargil area. Over twenty thousand Indian troops i.e about two army divisions are involved in what is being described as " fiercest operations", against the Kashmiri freedom fighters. On Thursday May 28 two IAF fighter aircraft (a Mig 23 and a Mig-21) intruded into Pakistani airspace, and were immediately shot down by alert Pakistani air defences. India astonishingly blamed Pakistan for provocation. Strangely Indian authorities are blind to the fact that the wreckage of both the Indian fighters landed in Pakistan territory. And this has been seen and confirmed by UN and foreign observers including the BBC. One of the Indian pilots a Flight Lieutenant Nachitika of the India Air Force ejected over Pakistan territory and has been captured as a POW. Squadron Leader Ahuja died when his Mig-23 was destroyed by ground fire. Since the shooting down of the Indian fighters the IAF has intensified helicopter gunship attacks on the entrenched freedom fighters in the Kargil-Dras mountains with the most modern fighters like the Su 30 K's providing top cover. Inspite of it the Kashmiri resistance brought down a Mig-17 gunship helicopter near Dras killing the two pilots and the two gunners. Indian Army's 155 mm Bofors heavy artillery has been continuously bombarding a stretch of 46 kilometers along the LoC, and some of the shells have landed twelve to fifteen kilometers inside Pakistan and Azad Kashmir territory. And now reports of use of chemical and biological weapons by India against the entrenched freedom fighters on Kargil mountain tops proves, that if India can resort to CB warfare, it could resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons as well. The global community and the UN must investigate.

With intensive Indian ground and air operations along and across the LoC in Kashmir the Lahore Declaration is as good as dead. By introducing the air dimension India has escalated the tempo of hostilities. India has brought into action its air force in an area in which air power was not used in the three earlier Indo-Pak wars. The high terrain here is unsuitable for air operations. Inspite of rockets, shells, bombs and air to surface missiles raining from IAF's gunship helicopters and strike fighters the Kashmiri freedom fighters perched on high peaks will keep on shooting them down. With the loss of IAF fighters, gunship helicopters and their pilots and crew the BJP government will lose face. It will gain nothing from these reckless military operations except ill will and contempt of the Kashmiris. India will lose face because it cannot win the battle against the invisible "enemy".

Pakistan continues to use utmost restraint by not authorising the PAF to shoot down Indian gun ship-helicopters, fighters and silence 155 Bofors firing on or across the LoC. PAF is on red alert and fighter-interceptors on air patrol duty could shoot down Indian intruders into Pakistan's air space if so ordered. India will pay heavily if it continues with its motive to escalate military aggression in Kashmir. The Prime Minister in his address on May 19 at the National Defence College was categorical that Kashmir issue was neither intractable nor complicated. "It must be resolved. There can be no selectivity in the enforcement of UN Security Council resolutions." Aware of Indian military capabilities and intentions, Nawaz Sharif correctly stated that Pakistan will preserve the deterrence. We shall not compromise on our security and survival. This is a question of life and existence. While maintaining nuclear deterrence Pakistan is acutely conscious of the risks and responsibilities arising from the possession of nuclear weapons. We are adopting appropriate measures to put in place an effective command and control system. We are opposed to nuclear arms race, and we are sensitive to international non-proliferation concerns." The Prime Minister stressed that "Nuclear restraint, stabilization and minimum credible deterrence constitute the basic elements of Pakistan's nuclear policy". Nuclear dimension has been introduced to an already tense and volatile security environment in South Asia. After Pakistan's May 28-30 nuclear tests the risk of all out war was averted, and the threat to our survival has receded. But indiscriminate artillery shelling and air bombardment across the LoC in the Kargil-Dras sector and loss of aircraft and helicopters and with mounting military and civilian casualties passion for revenge will intensify. Large scale air-land offensive by Indian armed forces against Pakistani defensive positions in the Kargil-Dras sector or elsewhere will be a very dangerous escalation. India cannot win large scale battles in the Kargil-Siachin sectors because Pakistan Army is deployed in strength and is well stocked for a prolonged battle in the area. India is in a no win position here. Wisdom demands that India desists from land-air strikes over or across the LoC, and pulls back. Nuclear armed India must understand that nuclear armed Pakistan will not countenance any military push across the LoC or across the international borders. BJP leadership will be insane if it ventures into such dangerous adventures. Pakistan Army will repulse Indian ground offensives in the Northern Areas and in A.K, as it will blunt and destroy Indian military aggression elsewhere. Employment of IAF fighters and IAF gunship helicopters in support of the Indian Army in Kashmir is an escalation of an already tense situation. This is a calculated and deliberate provocation to assess Pakistani nuclear deterrence, and Pakistani will-power to stop nibbling of the LoC. It appears that India plans to scrap the Simla Agreement and the Lahore Declaration by intensified military air-land operations in Kashmir. All prospects for Indo-Pakistan peace and amity will die if this continues. Pakistan and India must avoid another war on Kashmir. Unsolved Kashmir problem with the simmering conflict between the freedom fighters and occupying forces have escalated into full fledged battles in the Kargil-Dras areas. 46 kilometer stretch of Kargil-Siachin highway is presently unusable. According to Lt General Krishan Pal "the well trained freedom fighters are on a suicidal mission, and inspite of all efforts, are not leaving their held positions". From elusive hit and run attacks to fixed battles proves that the Kashmiris freedom struggle is succeeding. Continued blockade of the Kargil-Dras-Batalik road and region will cut off Siachin from the land. Wisdom demands that India withdraws from Siachin and from Kargil-Dras region, and starts negotiations in the spirit of the Simla Agreement. Conflict with the Kashmiris must be resolved peacefully and without resort to conventional, CB or nuclear weapons. Battles in the shadow of nuclear weapons in Kashmir could be as fatal as elsewhere.