Intelligence surveillance for new international environment

By Lt Col Muhammad Zaman Malik (Retd)

REQUIREMENT FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

The traditional information about the enemy and his capabilities and intentions is no longer just desirable, advantageous or force multiplier but is most essential due to fast changing environment caused by fast developing technological phenomenon, across the globe. One can easily discern dominant features of the international security environment, which has emerged since the tension between Russia and NATO, because of the ethnic carnage and racial genocide by the Serbs, in the neighbouring Balkan states. Confrontation has moved away from the priority of the traditional National Defence to the protection of economic interests not only of self but economically useful/friendly countries, too.

THE NEW SPECTRUM OF MILITARY ACTIVITY.

The new spectrum of military activity, due to rapid globalisation, undergoing fast transformation/new adjustments both psychologically and physically, includes protection of humanitarian activities, crisis management, peace keeping, peace enforcing, counter terrorism, regional stabilising and various levels of conventional conflicts. After giving deepest possible thought that one can muster, the main problem remains the same, originates from the same factors, and out of the same human urges for power and hegemony, etc. At the risk of transgression though, it will not be far too out of place, if I dare say that more than 95 percent reason for terrorism everywhere and particularly in Pakistan emanates from the economic terrorism within a country or across the world consisting of many regions/regional powers. If terrorism has to be eliminated economic justice is a must, if the global village is really to exist/if NWO has to be a fact of life and not a mere slogan. You can't have the cake and eat it too, with sheer rhetorics about one world. From each and every country right upto the International Level 'Anti-Economic Terrorists Courts'; must be constituted with full speed to tackle the terrorism in all its forms and guise, wherever it may be. The democratic forces must unite to get rid of the menace of terrorism through establishment of these courts at the earliest. In fact, if the government of Pakistan is sincere in tackling the problem of terrorism, it should not hide behind the smoke screen of ATCs. ATCs will prove a mere deception for safeguarding the plunderers. If indeed the people of Pakistan, as also the people of the world organise themselves to have these courts for the safety of life and property jeopardized by terrorism, with all the force and means at their disposal, it is more than possible and easiest thing to check terrorism.

Calling themselves as the people of one global village means all this; it should not be used for fashion sake! Anybody who talks about ATCs without first establishing the 'Anti-Economic Terrorists Courts' (AETCs) is a hypocrite, liar or for that matter a traitor. Let both types of the courts operate side by side.

HUMANITARIAN COMPLICATIONS.

Like currently in Balkan states as also in Africa and Middle East and probably in Kashmir and eventually in Afghanistan in the near future, the suppression of the tyrant will have to be crushed and peace enforcement ensured, simultaneously with regard to the humanitarian imperatives, which will really be a very complicated job. The slaughtering power being from the same soil, unlike the combined outside forces will be in possession of much better intelligence requirements and will pose extremely hard problems, particularly knowing that their victim is to be saved alongside fighting them, by the rescuing forces, that have come for the purpose, amidst civil war. There is no consensus on how to command and control war fighting along with civilian or military humanitarian/humanitarian operations, or indeed, on whether both can successfully take place concurrently. The expression 'asymmetric strategy', is however, currently popular.

ASYMMETRIC STRATEGY.

Air power exponents cogently argue its value in denying the enemy an opportunity to the strategy of his choice. But then one has to have the air power of NATO, vis-a-vis smaller and poor state to achieve desired results. Besides, such an enemy, as first priority, takes hostages, in direct contravention of international law, and is always temporarily successful. The enemy avoids confronting the intervening forces on their term. The enemy knows that he can not inflict military defeat on the intervening forces. He may simply raise the risks, pain or penalties to a threshold which, in view of the coalition, is no longer commensurate with the interests or obligations at stake. Each side tries to impose its strategy over the other. In that sense both will be asymmetric. Success is likely to go to the one who determines the nature and extent of the battle-space. Unfortunately, almost every tyrant's strength is matched by a potential coalition weakness. That imbalance is the driving force which converts information advantage from 'Desirable to Essential'. Therefore Consensus between and with in a coalition force (NATO) of the members will be essential for sustained activities. The consensus itself could be threatened from costs, casualties, and collateral damage.

In theatre, the same four categories of information will be required by commander of intervening forces, as by the political leaders who have dispatched them: opposition capability, intention, location and movement. Now however, information momentum assumes increasing importance as intervention moves towards actual confrontation. Dominant battle space-knowledge, together with requisite aerospace capabilities, will at the very least, considerably reduce the 'home team' advantages. At best it will allow an intervening coalition to determine the extent and nature of battle space in theatre, to impose its strategy and to secure the desired military objectives. We are far too behind (the whole world knows), behind India in space technology who scans Pakistan day and night, loaded with most lethal weapons in its satellites. India can pre-empt our nuclear attack as well as deny us the capability of 2nd strike without which we can not suppose to be having a nuclear capability/nuclear deterrent. So, instead of celebrating "Chaghi' like achievements (unlike India), we should spend on space technology. It is an on going battle. Celebrations look befitting only when we have surpassed the 'enemy prowess'. It is not like the ones which a Mayor would do after winning elections. People know where we stand in the field of science and technology, vis-a-vis India! Rather forex private accounts be restored. How many 'POKHRAN' days has India celebrated since 1974? We must spend rather on organising AETCs. In fact the point being hotly debated in the Press is, how to avert the threat of authoritarianism to Pakistan's Federation.